THE BALANCE OF POWER IN SOUTHEAST ASIA STILL TILTS IN FAVOR OF AMERICA

By Bayawanon

Everyone is concerned about the gain of strength of China in the field of international and geopolitics because of its dominance in the East Asian and Southeast Asian regions because of the military and naval might of China, but as I try to dig deeper and analyze the situation in Southeast Asia, the balance of power still tilts in favor of America.

It is true that Cambodia and Laos are satellite states of China, and the Philippines is now siding with China thereby giving China an upper hand in these countries. These countries can be used by China militarily and commercially but the rest of Southeast Asia is not a supporter of China.

Singapore which is a former British colony is a natural ally of the United States because of its former colonial master Great Britain, which is a traditional ally of America. Indonesia who has a territorial and maritime dispute with China would clearly side with the United States. Malaysia which is also a former British colony would also side with the U.S. since America is a friend of Great Britain, Malaysia's former colonial master and at the same time, Malaysia has also a maritime and territorial row with China.

Vietnam, a communist country is not a Chinese ally anymore though China is also a communist country like Vietnam since China has long strained diplomatic relations with Vietnam due to their maritime and territorial differences as regards the Spratly and the Paracel group of islands. The dispute between these two communist countries cannot easily be healed since the two countries had a naval battle which happened in the late 1970's which sprouted from their squabble out of the Paracels. Vietnam lost that ill-fated naval battle and the same still hates China because of it.

There is a STATUS QUO in Thailand, Brunie, East Timor and Burma between America and China, since these four countries are more or less neutral ones, hence the groupings would be Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam are for the United States, on the other hand, Laos. The Philippines and Cambodia would side with China.

To sum it up, America has more allies in Southeast Asia over China, even though China would like to own the rest of the South China Sea for her to dominate not just the South East Asian and East Asian regions but also the South Pacific Rim. If China has now naval bases in the Philippine side by way of its three reefs that are being used by China as its naval headquarters, Vietnam may let the Americans use the Cam Ranh Bay for the same to check the Chinese attempted military and naval dominance in the region. The Cam Ranh Bay which housed the Soviets' military base is much larger compared to the ones established by the Chinese over the three Philippine reefs, ergo America has an advantage over China if there's going to be a Chinese-American War in the South East Asian region.